It’s good to see a counter perspective. I am a big time bull on Hims. What I think you miss with the moat is that it’s a lollapalooza moat. Meaning, for such company to work, it has to do many things right, many things have to align and Hims has done that. You can justify how hard it is by actually looking at how Berkshire & Amazon failed. What I think you miss with expenses is that they are cash flow positive, they are not burning money. They are creating actual shareholder value. Plus, their market share among newcomers is higher than overall market share. When it comes to market opportunity, they haven’t entered into sleep & diabetes yet. This is $120 billion market opportunity. It can still fail, but I don’t think it’s on a place to be pessimist. But again, I respect your perspective and it’s good to see it. Congrats.
Part of the reason I picked Hims to write the article was because I hadn't seen any negative arguments on it.
One thing to keep in mind is that I invest in a very concentrated style. I like to make big bets infrequently on things I have very high conviction on, so the bar is very high. I'm certainly not suggesting that Hims will fail, or that it's something that should be shorted. It's just not a no-brainer to me.
I tend to look at the downside before I ever consider the upside, so something like Hims, or even Amazon in the early days will probably never make its way into my portfolio. That's ok with me. The goal is to make more errors of omission than commission.
There's no called strikes, and I wind up saying "no" to a lot more ideas than I say yes to.
I try to put aside my personal feelings when I'm looking at a company. That being said, I do occasionally wonder what it would be like to have a 100-bagger on some company that I'd hate to explain to my mother. It's kept me out of a few things in the past 😂
It’s good to see a counter perspective. I am a big time bull on Hims. What I think you miss with the moat is that it’s a lollapalooza moat. Meaning, for such company to work, it has to do many things right, many things have to align and Hims has done that. You can justify how hard it is by actually looking at how Berkshire & Amazon failed. What I think you miss with expenses is that they are cash flow positive, they are not burning money. They are creating actual shareholder value. Plus, their market share among newcomers is higher than overall market share. When it comes to market opportunity, they haven’t entered into sleep & diabetes yet. This is $120 billion market opportunity. It can still fail, but I don’t think it’s on a place to be pessimist. But again, I respect your perspective and it’s good to see it. Congrats.
Part of the reason I picked Hims to write the article was because I hadn't seen any negative arguments on it.
One thing to keep in mind is that I invest in a very concentrated style. I like to make big bets infrequently on things I have very high conviction on, so the bar is very high. I'm certainly not suggesting that Hims will fail, or that it's something that should be shorted. It's just not a no-brainer to me.
I tend to look at the downside before I ever consider the upside, so something like Hims, or even Amazon in the early days will probably never make its way into my portfolio. That's ok with me. The goal is to make more errors of omission than commission.
There's no called strikes, and I wind up saying "no" to a lot more ideas than I say yes to.
TDOC is a cash flow positive business too
This is not the only criteria.
Hi TJ, every time I see one of their commercials it is a big no for me! Your article makes me feel justified in how I see this company!
I try to put aside my personal feelings when I'm looking at a company. That being said, I do occasionally wonder what it would be like to have a 100-bagger on some company that I'd hate to explain to my mother. It's kept me out of a few things in the past 😂